Dive headfirst into the perplexing world of the San Francisco housing market with us, where the once-booming sellers' haven is now a landscape of potential fiscal pitfalls. We've got all the latest figures that show a stark decline in mortgage applications juxtaposed with an uptick in Google home searches—a true paradox that signals a sustained hunger for homeownership against the backdrop of economic adversity. As we wade through the muddy waters of median sale prices and the daunting challenge of saving for down payments in an inflation-riddled economy, we're not just handing you data; we're arming you with insights to make sense of these dizzying market trends.
In this candid conversation, we're not shying away from the hard truths. With interest rates hitting their highest since last November and a surge in new listings, we're seeing homes sell at breakneck speeds. But what does this mean for you, the buyer, the seller, the daydreamer of Bay Area living? We're dissecting economist predictions, federal rate cuts, and the ongoing housing shortage that's been intensified by recent immigration waves. And remember, we're not just here to report—we're here to strategize. Whether you're contemplating a property sale or on the cusp of buying, this episode is your guide through the turmoil, loaded with strategic takeaways to navigate the Bay Area's real estate roller coaster.
This episode is brought to you by Premier Ridge Capital.
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San Francisco. Home sellers are actually losing money. Find out more in this week's real estate market update. But before that let's take a look at this week's housing market data Fewer. People are swiping right on houses this month. Mortgage applications are down 5% from last week and a whopping 23% to last year. Looks like buying a house is on hold for many folks here in America. Google searches for homes for sale are up 4% compared to last month. Looks like the dream of homeownership may still be alive and kicking.
Speaker 1:
Buying a house these days feels like trying to get VIP access at a sold-out concert. The median sale price is crazy $378,250. Saving up for a down payment may seem challenging these days, especially with the inflation data that just came out. This housing market has gotten wilder this week. The median asking price for a home is currently at $10,950, with a median monthly mortgage payment of $2,700 at a 6.79% rate. That's more like paying rent with extra steps and a higher price tag. Forget the venti latte every morning. The median mortgage payment is a whopping $2,747 at a 6.82% mortgage rate, and more houses are hitting the market than before. New listings are up a whopping 14.1% compared to last year. But with so many options, finding the one feels like trying to find a decent apartment in your price range. It sure is a struggle these days. And are houses flying off the market? This week, with the median time a house is available, it's only 37 days, so a lot of data here to unpack.
Speaker 1:
While listings are up 14%, interest rates are very high. The 10-year treasury today, april 11th, was 4.5%, which means the mortgage interest rates go up. That's the highest they've been since November of 2023. Now what's happening is that the economists are coming out and saying that the interest rates we may not get that relief in interest rates from the feds until later this year, maybe even after the election, which may not be good for this current administration. So what happens is if the feds don't lower rates, that means we're going to see more houses going on the market. We should see prices declining, because that's the way it's supposed to work when rates go up, prices are supposed to come down, so affordability makes sense. But it's kind of been really weird and wild. That has not happened, despite the fact. Well, overall hasn't happened in some areas it has. Overall, it hasn't happened despite the fact that the rates are where they are Now.
Speaker 1:
The other thing that's really interesting about this data is that the medium time houses are on the market are 37 days, so they're going down. Last week was 41. I believe the week before that. The medium time houses are on the market are 37 days, so they're going down. Last week was 41. I believe the week before that the medium days on the market was about 45. So interesting that we're getting more inventory to hit the market at higher rates and yet we got shorter days on the market.
Speaker 1:
I'm wondering if people are getting hip to the fact that when the rates come down, prices are going to go back up, and yet let's keep in mind that we do still have a housing shortage in our country. We have a major housing shortage and with the 1.8 million immigrants that just entered our country here in the last few years, it's going to get worse over time. So don't wait to buy real estate, buy real estate and wait. So if you're in the Bay Area and you're thinking of flipping your house for a huge profit, you might want to think twice about it. Here's the deal. Right now, almost one in five San Francisco home sellers are actually losing money, according to Redfin, when they sell. This is because home prices went way up during the pandemic and now they're coming back down to earth. Nationally, things are different. Most sellers are still making money, but not in San Francisco. If you do lose money in San Francisco, it's probably going to be a lot around $155,000 on average, ouch. So what does this mean for you? If you're thinking about selling your San Fran home, be prepared that you might not walk away with a big listenership there.
Speaker 1:
According to what I'm watching on the news and some of the YouTube channels and some of the people I follow, you guys are experiencing some crazy craziness over there with theft and businesses closing down. Craziness over there with theft and businesses closing down. Now, I think a supermarket chain closed down its doors and the city is suing them because they closed down without notice. If you're not protecting them, if you're not providing them security and you're allowing for thieves and hoodlums to go in and take, up to $950 is the rule in California. Up to $950 you can steal and you got a misdemeanor. It's crazy and it's wild.
Speaker 1:
So all of this is tied to real estate. Well, how does it tie back to real estate? Well, who wants to move there? Would you want to move to a city where people are going into stores and dealing in nothing. No one can do anything about it. Would you feel safe there? Would you want to move? If you're in San Francisco, I'd love to hear from you your thoughts. Leave me your thoughts in the comments. I'd love to know if this is actually what is happening in San Francisco. What are your thoughts with businesses actually closing and leaving the state because they're not getting protection and all of this craziness is happening with theft and crime and bad policy? To be quite, if we're going to be quite honest, this is all due to bad policy, so it's bad policies that's creating this problem and this type of losses in San Francisco. That's my opinion and this has been your weekly real estate market update. I'll see you guys next week. Peace.